Liquidity & Technicals
Liquidity & Technicals
Figures converted from JPY at historical FX rates — see data/company.json.fx_rates. Ratios, margins, and multiples are unitless and unchanged.
The position is institutionally tradable but capacity-constrained: a 5% portfolio weight is implementable for funds up to roughly $56M AUM at 20% ADV participation over five sessions, and any meaningful issuer-level stake (1%+ of market cap) takes nearly two trading weeks to unwind. The tape sits in a neutral-to-bearish near-term posture inside an intact secular uptrend — price is above its 200-day average but below the 50-day, with a 20/50 death cross printed on 2026-03-27 on shrinking volume.
1. Portfolio implementation verdict
5d Capacity at 20% ADV ($M)
Largest 5d Position (% mcap)
Supported AUM, 5% Position ($M)
ADV 20d / Mcap (%)
Technical Stance (-3 to +3)
Capacity-constrained, neutral-bearish tape. Liquidity supports small institutional positions but caps full exposure for funds above roughly $140M AUM (2% weight) or $56M (5% weight). The technical setup is a stalling secular uptrend, not an entry trigger.
2. Price snapshot
Last Close ($)
YTD Return (%)
1Y Return (%)
52w Range Position (0=low, 100=high)
5Y Return (%)
3. Ten-year price with 50-day and 200-day moving averages
Most recent 50/200 golden cross printed on 2025-08-04 (preceded by a death cross on 2025-06-05). The cross is still intact: SMA50 $13.34 sits above SMA200 $11.67.
Price $12.81 is above the 200-day SMA ($11.67) by 9.8% — secular uptrend regime, consolidating beneath the February 2026 high of $14.77. The structural picture is a four-fold rerating off the 2020 lows; the question is whether the current sideways-to-down move is a pause or a top.
4. Relative strength
No domestic Japan benchmark series is loaded in this run (broad-market ETF was configured as SPY, sector ETF unavailable). A clean relative-strength chart against TOPIX or a Japan small-cap index is not produced rather than fabricated. Absolute context: +44.2% over one year and +148.5% over five years implies meaningful outperformance versus TOPIX (mid-single-digit annualised over the same window), but cannot be quantified here.
5. Momentum — RSI(14) and MACD histogram (last 18 months)
RSI 43.4 sits below the 50 midline with no oversold reading — momentum is weak, not extreme. MACD line (-21.2) is below signal (-13.4) with a negative histogram (-7.78); the histogram has narrowed for two sessions but remains decidedly negative. Net: short-term momentum is bearish and not yet reversing.
6. Volume, volatility, and sponsorship
The two largest volume events on record (Feb 24-25, 2022) coincided with the run-up around AlphaTheta becoming a wholly-owned subsidiary; the third (Nov 14, 2019) was a sharp down-day with no clear filing-traceable trigger. Catalyst attribution beyond that is inference — the source files do not have matched events.
Realized vol of 34% sits inside the p20–p80 normal band (28.4% – 52.0% over 10 years). Volume conviction has weakened — the 20-day ADV of $2.88M is roughly half the 60-day ADV of $5.38M, meaning the current pullback is happening on shrinking activity rather than capitulation.
7. Institutional liquidity panel
ADV 20d (shares)
ADV 20d ($M)
ADV 60d (shares)
ADV 20d / Mcap (%)
Annual Turnover (%)
The 20-day ADV is materially lower than the 60-day ADV ($2.88M vs $5.38M) — recent trading interest has cooled by roughly 47% off its trailing-three-month pace.
Median 60-day intraday range is 2.12% per session — modestly elevated for a Tokyo Prime listing, implying market-impact costs above the ~1% rule-of-thumb on chunky orders. The largest issuer-level position that clears in five sessions at 20% ADV is 0.5% of market cap (~$2.3M); at the more conservative 10% participation, no full 0.5% position clears in five days. A 1%-of-market-cap stake takes 9 sessions at 20% ADV or 17 sessions at 10% — that is the practical ceiling for an institutional position here.
8. Technical scorecard and stance
Stance over a 3-to-6-month horizon: neutral. The secular setup (above 200d, golden cross still active, +44% trailing year) is constructive, but the near-term tape is weakening — RSI and MACD are negative, the 20-day ADV has roughly halved versus the 60-day ADV, and a 20/50 death cross printed on 2026-03-27. Two levels matter: a reclaim of $13.77 (back through the 50-day SMA cluster at $13.34 and into the upper Bollinger band at $13.69) would re-confirm the bullish secular case; a clean break of $11.67 (the 200-day SMA) would shift regime to bearish and invite a re-test of the $8.87 52-week low. Liquidity is the binding constraint, not the tape — even with a perfect technical signal, a fund larger than roughly $56M AUM running a 5% target weight would need to build the position over multiple weeks rather than days.